Rain on the parade

Iron Horse organizers at the mercy of Mother Nature

by Tracy Chamberlin

More than four decades ago two brothers, one on his bicycle and the other on the train, raced up the mountain to Silverton to see which was faster – man or machine. This year those participating in the event spawned from that brotherly battle are more likely to be racing Mother Nature.

With rain and snow in the weekend forecast, organizers of the Iron Horse Bicycle Classic have plenty of contingency planning in place for the 44th running of the event.

“We are not an indoor event – that’s part of what makes it amazing,” explained Gaige Sippy, director of the Iron Horse. “It’s vulnerable to any change in weather.”

Sippy has headed up the Memorial Day weekend staple for the past nine years, taking a hiatus last year and returning in 2015.

In that time, he said he can’t remember a weather pattern as active as the one currently falling over the Southwest.

According to the latest weather reports from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, it looks as though race day could fall in between two active systems.

Sippy said they don’t even need a full day of racing weather, just a window. About a six-hour window to be exact.

Saturday morning state patrollers will head north to Molas Pass and see what the skies look like firsthand, something they do every year.

“Safety’s our top job,” Sippy said.

They plan to make a final decision on whether to shorten or cancel the race between 4 - 6 a.m. Saturday. Riders, residents and fans can keep up-to-date via the Iron Horse website, Facebook Page or local media outlets.

Waiting until Saturday morning is something organizers didn’t do in 2014.

Last year, the decision was made on Friday to cut the race short and end it at Purgatory, the typical finish for the Quarter Horse. However, when riders awoke Saturday morning, it was an entirely different weather story.

In an effort to avoid that this year, Sippy said they’ve hired meteorologist Joel Gratz with OpenSnow.com to help them keep an eye on the skies throughout the week.

“Last year was a bit of an anomaly,” he said.

The first Iron Horse event celebrating the brothers’ duel was held in 1972. Since then, it’s been impacted by Mother Nature just four times.

Three of those times the finish line was at Purgatory, including last year. Only once was the race completely cancelled.

In happened in 2008, when Sippy was at the helm. Three inches of snow fell in downtown Durango and 15 inches fell in Silverton.

Whether it was the equipment and cars stuck in Silverton or the food at aid stations along the way, Sippy learned just how much it takes to actually cancel an event like the Iron Horse. Something he hopes won’t be useful knowledge this year.

As of presstime, NOAA had a Hazardous Weather Outlook for the Durango area for Saturday. The call is for unsettled weather through next week with a low pressure system bringing more rain over the weekend, and a 30 percent chance of snow and rain on Saturday morning.

“For us, the gamble is where our riders are when the weather gets bad,” he explained.

Organizers also have to think about all the fans and families.

This makes Purgatory the perfect stopping point if they can’t head up Molas Pass. Sippy said the resort has the facilities to accommodate riders, fans, families and everyone else attending the event.

And, the resort will be ready.

According to Kim Oyler, Purgatory’s Director for Communications, the resort has also learned some things from last year’s event. They plan to push the finish area away from the main plaza and move vendor tents closer to the bottom of the slopes.

This should open up the finish area, so riders have room to cool down and dismount; and spectators have the space to cheer them on as they cross the line.

“We’ll be ready for whatever happens,” Oyler said.

One of the many factors behind the active systems moving across the region is El Niño, a weather phenomenon characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the equatorial region of the Pacific Ocean. Its counterpart, La Niña, occurs when those ocean temperatures are cold.

Depending on the place called home, it can be good news or bad news.

In Australia, the appearance of El Niño typically means devastating wildfires. In the Western Pacific, it means drought conditions; and, in the southern U.S. and Peru, it means the potential for destructive flooding.

With southern California suffering from record drought, a whole lot of rain could be exactly what the area needs.

At this point, the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center said there’s a 90 percent chance that the current El Niño will continue through the summer and a better than 80 percent chance it will last through the year.

And, it could be the strongest one in almost two decades.

The reason for the confidence is that so many forecasters are on the same page and getting consistent readings.

This is good news for those hoping for plenty of moisture next winter. The most substantial precipitation from El Niño comes over the winter months, according to the NOAA’s ENSOblog.

For the short term, El Niño could bring much-needed rain to parched Californians, as well as keep the fires at bay and the river running in Southwest Colorado this summer.

But nothing is for sure. After all, Mother Nature is a fickle lady.

So, just as meteorologists are keeping an eye on El Niño, the organizers of the Iron Horse are watching and waiting for their window.

Sippy said it’s a lot like being a farmer – you either hope it rains, or you hope it doesn’t.

This weekend, he’s hoping it doesn’t.