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Snow-free ski areas and ice-free Arctic

Mt. Baker Ski Area in Washington has had its troubles, and whether they have anything to do with conditions in the Arctic Ocean is an open question.

The ski area closed on March 8, because of insufficient snow. The ski area has an average annual snowfall of 641 inches, among the most of any ski area in the country. General manager Duncan Howat said the ski area needed 6 to 12 inches to reopen, and as of Monday, the ski area’s website suggested a possible Friday reopening.

In Colorado, meanwhile, a conference at Beaver Creek examined the opportunities represented by the melting of the Arctic Ocean. Gary Roughead, a retired admiral in the U.S. Navy, pointed out that 30 percent of the world’s estimated natural gas reserves are found in the Arctic, as well as sizable oil deposits.

In his presentation at the Vail Global Energy Forum, Roughead presented a graphic showing the iceflow over the Arctic in recent years. It waxes in winter, of course, and wanes in summer. But the ice-free component of summer has been growing rapidly.

That means ships have been able to use the Arctic to get between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. This is shorter than the routes through the Southern Hemisphere or using the Panama and Suez canals.

But ice remains and, said Roughead, it’s very local and hard to predict. Container-ship transport remains risky.

The question hanging over both Mt. Baker’s lack of snow and the withering Arctic ice is how much either is a reflection of human-caused climate change.

Baker’s woes are those of just one winter, and scientists are undecided about how much to blame the West Coast drought on greenhouse gas emissions. But the Arctic meltdown is easily enough linked.

Is this meltdown a problem? Michael Dimock, president of the Pew Research Center, said polling suggests that climate change “feels very distant to people” and hence doesn’t become a high priority for action.

Dimock also noted that there’s a giant gap among countries and their perception of climate change as a significant problem. In Brazil, 76 percent of people think it’s a problem, and in Canada it’s 55 percent. Down the list are the United States at 40 percent and China at 39 percent.

“It’s interesting that the two largest carbon emitters in the world are down at the bottom of the list about professed concern about climate change,” he said.

The conference was not all doom and gloom, however. Photovoltaic solar energy has come on in a major way. Ahmad Chatila, president of SunEdison, said the cost of electricity from collectors has dropped to 10 cents a kilowatt-hour and likely could drop as low as 2 to 4 cents by the end of the decade. This is thanks to advances in battery storage and other technological breakthroughs.

Others, though, suggested that slowing down this runaway train may not be enough if we want to avoid a climate that lurches violently like an unbalanced washing machine.

Right now, the melting of the Arctic seems distant and gradual. But according to some models, things could turn out badly for more than just polar bears very, very soon.

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When spring runoff comes in February

HAILEY, Idaho – In the past, the peak snowpack in the Wood River Valley, where Ketchum and Sun Valley are located, has occurred, on average, on April 1.

But come 2070? It will be a different story, according to a study conducted by the Pacific Northwest Climate Impacts Research Consortium. Their modeling suggests the peak snowpack will occur as early as mid-February.

Instead of snow, there will be more rain. Winters will get shorter.

“This isn’t to say that we’re getting less moisture overall,” said John Stevenson, a member of the research consortium, in a presentation at Hailey. “But it changes how we’re going to get it, which has impacts for streamflows,” he added. “Snowpacks will be smaller, but more important is that they’re going to melt off earlier in the year.”

Currently, nearly 60 percent of the annual precipitation around Sun Valley falls in the form of snow.

Stevenson told the 124 people who attended the presentation that the climate has shown greater variability over the long term, but scientists cannot explain the changes of the past 50 years without taking human activity into consideration.

Average local temperatures now are about 1 degree higher than they were in the mid-20th century. But temperatures by 2070 may increase between 4 and 11 degrees.

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Converting twigs into fuel for jets

BEND, Ore. – Sometimes in the future you may fly off on your next vacation thanks to … twigs from the woods. Yes, the technology exists to convert tree tops, tree limbs and small-diameter trees into jet fuel, diesel and naphtha, a kind of white gas once used for camp stoves.

The Bend Bulletin reports that a Colorado-based company plans to start building a $200 million biofuels plant at a site along the Oregon-California border. The woody debris will come from thinning projects where larger trees have gone to a sawmill.

The company, Red Rock Biofuels, has a contract to sell 3 million gallons of renewable jet fuel a year to Southwest Airlines. Enabling its progress so far has been a $70 million federal grant.

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Grueling training for … a TED talk

WHISTLER, B.C. – A year ago, the famous TED talks moved locations on the West Coast, and Whistler replaced Palm Springs, Calif., as the venue for what is called the “little TED.” The big TED, so to speak, is now in Vancouver.

But Ted Talks, no matter the venue, have become all the rage since this “candy for the brain” series began in 2006. They’re really about ideas, big ideas, and the practice of public speaking.

So, they’re not about putting together a PowerPoint and then turning your back on the audience as you read the bullets on your PowerPoint. It takes practice.

Whistler’s Pique Newsmagazine interviewed Chris Burkard, a surf photographer, who is to give a TED talk in Whistler this year.

“The process of working on a TED talk is grueling. Absolutely grueling,” he said.

He said he has revised his nine-minute talk about 85 times – and he wasn’t finished when he talked with Pique. “It’s one thing to have a good talk, but with the TED talk you’re kind of reaching for a great talk.”

Pique noted that he has “spent his life making his career in some of the harshest conditions on the planet.”

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Making panhandlers mind their manners

TELLURIDE – The Telluride Town Council is expected to sharply restrict panhandling. The law, discussed since last summer, would ban panhandling between sunset and sunrise, as well as aggressive, intimidating or threatening panhandling.

The proposed law, reports the Telluride Daily Planet, also has a great many other thou-shalt-nots, such as no soliciting money within 20 feet of a public restroom or automated teller machine.

In drafting the regulations, the city staff studied panhandling ordinances already in place in New York City, Kalamazoo, Mich., and other cities.

Town attorney Kevin Geiger noted that he sought to balance First Amendment protections of free speech with limitations on time and places that would be considered reasonable.

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Does it matter who owns a resort?

CRESTED BUTTE – Do you know who owns your favorite ski area? If it’s Colorado’s Crested Butte, Utah’s Brighton, or California’s Sierra-at-Tahoe, the owner is CNL Lifestyle Properties, which has 15 other properties, mostly in New England.

CNL is a real estate investment trust that, according to the Associated Press, is considering getting out of the snow business. The REIT expects to have an “exit strategy” in place by the end of this year.

– Allen Best

Who will buy the resorts? Michael Krongel, from Mirus Resort Capital in Burlington, Mass., suggested it has to be somebody with patience. They can be good investments, but they are at the mercy of weather and the economy.

One ski area executive told the AP that the sale will be a nonevent for visitors at the various resorts.

In Crested Butte, long-time resident Jim Schmidt, a town councilman, concurred. “The sale will be just like a bank who holds your mortgage getting sold,” said Schmidt. “I don’t think it will affect a thing.”

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Real estate in remote towns slowly on rise

CRESTED BUTTE – Nearly seven years after the real estate bust, sales activity in resort towns of the West remains subdued. Sales are occurring, prices are rising, but relatively little construction is under way as compared to the last boom.

Valleys that are more isolated and less laden with amenities have been even slower to recover. And, as always, local conditions are greatly dependent upon second-home buyers.

In Crested Butte, it’s second-homes that drive the real estate market. Agents tell the Crested Butte News that residents of the Denver-Boulder metropolitan area have picked up their purchases.

Homeowners are also investing in land. The average price of lots in Crested Butte South, a suburb of Crested Butte, has gone up from $40,000 to $70,000 in the last 18 months.

Still, activity in 2015 is not to be confused with the pulse-quickening sales of 2005. “We’re in a steadily increasing upward trend, but I don’t think it’s going to go crazy overnight,” real estate broker Gary Huresky, with Benson Sotheby’s International, told the News.

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Bottom real estate rung rising rapidly

MAMMOTH LAKES, Calif. – The housing squeeze is tightening in ski towns and mountain valleys across the West.

In Mammoth Lakes, Steven Osterman told elected officials that the space he rents for the mobile home he purchased in 1998 has increased 68 percent. In other words, his rent had increased from $450 per month to $760 month.

Osterman, according to The Sheet, told council members that plumbers, roofers, electricians and “others who keep the wheels of this community turning” were in danger of being forced to move. “We’re being beaten down by greed,” he said.

In Wyoming, the wheels of commerce move most briskly during summer months in Jackson Hole, which is the front door to both Grand Teton and Yellowstone national parks.

But nonprofits are already bracing – the Jackson Hole News&Guide suggests “wincing” – at the prospect of being unable to find housing for seasonal employees.

“Rents are going through the roof,” said Mary Erickson, of the Community Resource Center. “People’s leases are running out, and their new rent will be at least $500 higher than it was. When you’re barely getting by, that’s not something you can afford.”

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The Chinese are coming! The Chinese are coming!

JACKSON HOLE, Wyo. – Jackson Hole’s most conspicuous visitors last year were from China. They arrived on tour buses, went shopping in groups, and spent money in galleries and other stores like they had lots of it.

There’s more behind them. Bloomberg News reports that 109 million tourists from China visited the United States last year. By 2019, there will be 174 million Chinese tourists, most of them 25 to 34 years old. The next largest group will be even younger, 15 to 24.

Analysis by Bank of America Merrill Lynch compares it to when the Japanese began traveling 30 years ago. “In our view, this is going to be bigger and will last longer given China’s population of 1.3 billion vs. Japan’s population of 127 million.”

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Sad story of a woman who died too young

CARBONDALE – Last August, a 21-year-old college student was driving on Highway 82, down-valley from Aspen, when an oncoming car strayed and hit her car. Her boyfriend was riding with her.

The student, Meleyna Kistner, was killed, and she was, by all accounts, a remarkable individual. She had a GPA of 3.8 as a mechanical engineering student at Rose-Hulman Institute of Technology in Terre Haute, Ind.

“Her passion was cars, automobiles, engine design,” said the boyfriend, Daniel Thul.

Now in question is what kind of punishment the driver of the oncoming car will receive. She apparently fell asleep but survived with a broken leg. No alcohol or drugs seem to have been involved, although family members of the victim also note that the driver had eight speeding tickets dating to 1991.

The Aspen newspapers say that family members of both the woman and her boyfriend are adamant that the woman’s driving privileges need to be suspended. But they spoke mostly of the pain.

“The boyfriend described Kistner as his soulmate. “I’ll never be as happy as I was with her,” said Thul. “And you only have one soulmate. She was mine, and I’ll never meet someone I will connect with like her.”

– Allen Best

For more from throughout the West go to www.mountaintownnews.net