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Don’t get excited - Durango Mountain Resort has not fired up its heavy snow artillery just yet. The cold-water phenomenon La Niña is returning this winter, albeit in a weaker form than last season. Typically, this translates into more snow for the northern and central mountains and less for the southern./Steve Eginoire file photo
A La Niña double-dip
Back-to-back winter weather episode in store
by Missy Votel
The economy isn’t the only thing threatening to take a double-dip this winter.
The economy isn’t the only thing threatening to take a double-dip this winter.
La Niña, that mysterious cooling of Pacific equatorial waters, is once again fueling the possibility that local powder hounds will be more than a little envious of their cohorts to the north.
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The cold-water phenomenon, which contributed to extreme weather around the globe during the first half of 2011, has re-emerged and is forecast to gradually gain steam heading into winter, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center. La Niña typically occurs every three to five years, and back-to-back episodes occur about 50 percent of the time. NOAA, which updates its La Niña/El Niño prediction weekly, said La Niña winters often see drier than normal conditions across the southern tier of the United States and wetter than normal conditions in the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley.
“This means drought is likely to continue in the drought-stricken states of Texas, Oklahoma and New Mexico,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center. “La Niña also often brings colder winters to the Pacific Northwest and the northern Plains, and warmer temperatures to the southern states.”
Throughout the West, the strong 2010-11 La Niña contributed to record snowfall and spring flooding in Utah’s Wasatch, British Columbia and Colorado’s northern and central mountains. However, snowpack in the southern mountains, including Wolf Creek, DMR and Telluride, was average at best, with Taos taking the brunt, coming in at only 54 percent of average.
Durango Mountain Resort Marketing Director Sven Brunso said typically La Niña presents more of a marketing quandary than an actual weather problem for the resort. In his time at DMR, Brunso has seen four La Niñas of varying strength, which all bring the same general conditions. “Typically what happens is, it’s drier in Durango, but the ski area does OK, and to the south of Durango, it’s really dry,” he said. “All it means is we have to get out in front on our marketing to tell people in Arizona and New Mexico now that while it’s dry there, Southwest Colorado has snow.”
Forecasters, too, are cautioning against reading too much into this winter’s return of “the little girl.”
“No two La Niñas are the same,” said Joel Gratz, a meteorologist and diehard skier based in Boulder. “This winter’s (La Niña) is appearing to be a little weaker, with regions of cooler water in different regions and different strengths. I’m less confident it will be exactly like last year.”
Gratz, whose regular e-mails to similarly obsessed friends morphed into the website coloradopowderforecast.com in 2009, said the weaker the La Niña, the less predictable it is. “Generally with La Niña, storms come from the west-northwest, which does really well for ski areas along I-70 and the central mountains,” he said. “Typically, Red Mountain Pass is the dividing line between the northern San Juans and the southern San Juans.”
However, even last year’s strong event came with its own asterisks in the weather charts. “Although Taos was very below average, Arizona Snowbowl did OK, and Southern California and Mammoth, which shouldn’t have done well, did almost 200 percent of average,” said Gratz.
He also stressed that although U.S. winters are especially influenced by La Niña, they are just patterns. “La Niña stacks the deck in favor of more snow for the north, but it doesn’t preclude storms coming through the south, even if atypical of La Niña,” he said. “Any storm in the San Juans can dump down a quick 7 feet of snow.”
As was the case last year at DMR, where a 3-day storm left several feet of snow at the end of December, which carried the resort through a snowless January. “Last year, we had exceptional conditions even though we didn’t have a flake in January, because it was so cold. Plus, we’re not as steep as places like Telluride or Taos, so we don’t need a huge based for good coverage,” Brunso said.
While some areas may see huge fluctuations from El Niño to La Niña years, DMR is situated in such a way that it always seems to sit on the cusp of weather patterns. “Our snowfall totals usually only deviate between 240 and 300 inches,” Brunso continued. “We don’t get the huge swings, we’re just average – which is a good spot to be in.”
Gratz said weather forecasters will have a clearer picture of what this winter will hold in the next four to six weeks. In the meantime, he predicted what a lot of Durangoans may already know. “Starting Thursday night and into next week, it’ll definitely be feeling like winter down there,” he said.
He also predicted that in another few months, talk of long-range forecasts will die down, too. “It’s fun to talk about seasonal predictions in October and November,” he said. “But during ski season, all that matters is the next storm.”
He also predicted that in another few months, talk of long-range forecasts will die down, too. “It’s fun to talk about seasonal predictions in October and November,” he said. “But during ski season, all that matters is the next storm.”
For the latest winter weather predictions, up-to-date powder alerts and general snow geek lore, go to www.ColoradoPowderForecast.com.
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- January 11, 2024
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New state climate report projects continued warming, declining streamflows