The Grand Canyon Gamble
National Park Service launches new lottery permit system

A raft navigates Upset Rapid, one of the Grand Canyon’s numerous drops. Starting May 1, private boaters can apply for a 2008 launch date. Trips will be allocated using the new weighted lottery system,whereby people who have not boated the river recently will be given extra chances./Photo by Todd Newcomer

by Missy Votel

Boaters still recirculating in an eddy of confusion over how to go about putting in for a permit on the granddaddy of all Western rivers can take heart. After a lengthy overhaul process, now all that’s needed to put in for a private trip on the Grand Canyon is a little dough, a little stockpiled vacation time and (maybe more than) a little luck. Starting May 1 and running through noon Sat., May 28, the National Park Service will be accepting applications for the 2008 permit lottery. Drawings will take place May 31.

The lottery system, implemented late last year, replaces the infamous Grand Canyon “waitlist,” which had private boaters waiting upwards of 20 years for their crack at floating one of the world’s premiere whitewater runs.

“Basically now, you just apply when you’re interested,” said Steve Sullivan, permit program manager with the Park Service in Flagstaff, Ariz. He said the notion that the general public could not apply until the waitlist had been exhausted is a common misconception. Rather, people on the waitlist were given the option of either scheduling a concrete date for a trip within five years, getting a full refund or being absorbed into the lottery system. Those opting for the latter were given “extra chances” in the lottery based upon how many years they had been on the waiting list. Furthermore, they were allowed to band together with fellow waitlisters, thus combining their extra chances.

“In transitioning to the new lottery-based system, we additionally increase the chances of those who have been on the waitlist for a number of years,” he said. “These extra chances are designed to ensure most former waitlist members ‘win’ through the lottery as soon or sooner than they would have under the old system.”

Of course, since it is a lottery, Sullivan acknowledged that there may be some former waitlisters who, despite increased chances, do not pull a permit. “This does not mean that our commitment to getting them on a trip is ending,” he said. Rather, he said the Park Service will be exploring “adaptive management” strategies in upcoming months to remedy this possibility. “We’re developing a ‘catch-all’ system for the waitlist, and that way, we can actually take care of everybody,” he said.

As for the rest of the private boating community, Sullivan said the system is designed to favor those who have not run the river recently. “It’s called a weighted lottery because we adjust each individual’s odds of winning, so those who have been down the Colorado less recently – or never – have a greater chance of winning than those who have been down more recently,” he said.

As such, the new system is based on “preference points” – the number of years since an applicant has been down the river, up to a maximum of five. “Think of the number of years since you’ve been down as the number of lottery tickets for your permit in the pot,” he said.

He said it’s important to note that the formula applies to both private and commercial trips. “So if you took a commercial trip last year, you’ll have one preference point when you apply for a private trip this year,” he noted. The permit system also is set up so a person may only float the river once per year, in order to free up space for others.

The price for applying for a permit is $25 per year. This fee is good for follow-up cancellation lotteries throughout the year. Upon winning, applicants will immediately be charged the full permit deposit of $400, which will go toward the $100 per person fee.

Sullivan said the upcoming lottery will be the second – the first, which was for 2007, was held in October. “So far, the new system is going very smoothly,” he said.

For 2008, a total of 213 private trips will be available through the lottery: 41 for small trips (one to 8 people) and the rest for standard trips (up to 16 people). Sullivan said since it is such a new system, it is difficult to predict how many people will apply, but he guesses the number will be between 5,000 and 7,000. “If 5,000 applications are submitted for the roughly 200 or so launch dates, that would represent a success rate average of one in 25,” he said. However, he noted that success will also depend on the dates for which people apply. For example, those going after winter launch dates will have a greater chance than those going after launch dates during the highly sought after summer months. Furthermore, as part of the request from noncommercial boaters for more launch dates, there are more trips available to noncommercial boaters during the shoulder and winter months. “We heard pretty strongly from noncommercial boaters that they wanted more of an allocation,” said Sullivan. “But since all the launches are on such a strict schedule, we put more during the shoulder seasons, which pretty much doubled the amount of noncommercial trips.”

The new system marks the culmination of a decade of complicated and often contentious negotiations over the Colorado River Management Plan, the document guiding usage of more than 275 miles of the Colorado River through the Grand Canyon. The plan, which was released in November 2005, took into account various and differing viewpoints from stakeholders, including the American Whitewater Association, Grand Canyon River Runners Association, Grand Canyon River Outfitters Association and Grand Canyon Private Boaters Association.

Rich Philips, vice president of the Private Boaters Association, said for the large part, his group’s 700-some members are satisfied with the new system. “Our group represents a whole, wonderful spectrum of private boaters who like to go down the Grand Canyon in various ways,” he said. “It was a compromise from every point of view, but for the time being, it’s workable.”

He applauded the work of Sullivan as well as the Park Service’s “adaptive management” approach, which allows for tinkering with the system as needed. “One thing they changed immediately was the computer program,” he said, “it shows they really want the system to work.”

He also noted that the plan will be up for revision in seven years, a mere blink of an eye by old waitlist standards. In the meantime, he was getting ready to take advantage of his once-a-year chance to experience one of Mother Nature’s crown jewels. “I’m actually leaving for the Grand tomorrow,” he said on Monday “We put on April 30^th.” •