Seeing forests 60 years down the road
ASPEN – Current average mean temperature in Aspen during summer is just shy of 79 degrees. And if civilization continues to spew greenhouse gas into the atmosphere? It’ll hit nearly 90 degrees by late this century, according to computer models.
But what exactly does that mean? Brian Enquist, an expert in ecology and evolutionary biology at the University of Arizona, has been working on new techniques that can help the layperson get visual images of what the warming environment will mean for the West.
Speaking at the Aspen Ideas Festival on Sunday, he said much of our paralysis in the face of mounting evidence about greenhouse gas can be traced to the inability of people to imagine how the changing climate will impact them personally.
“The thought is that global climate change is global – and it will happen someplace else, maybe rising sea levels and increased hurricanes.”
With that in mind, several organizations have set out to make climate change more personal and local. The team, including the University of Arizona Science iPlant Collaborative, tapped the burgeoning database about species and habitat.
With this data base, they then set out to create tools that simulate these changes. One of those applications has to do with imaging today’s forests as they change in the West.
Set at about 8,000 feet, Aspen is surrounded by forests of subalpine fir and, at higher elevations, Engelmann spruce and blue spruce. Unlike many other mountain towns in Colorado, it has relatively little lodgepole pine.
As temperatures rise, that forest of subalpine fir will gradually be replaced. By 2081, assuming that global civilization does not curb its emissions of greenhouse gases, the existing tree species will nearly all be replaced with other species that are now found at lower elevations, including piñon and ponderosa pine.
“Subalpine species could decrease up to 95 percent under the worst-case scenario,” Enquist said. “We now have the ability to start to visualize what climate change means for our forests, our landscapes, my back yard and my property,” he said while showing a computer simulation that uses Google Earth to zoom in on a landscape.
Worst-case warming will reduce biomass in Western forests by up to 40 percent. If civilization curbs emissions? There will be warming, but less of it.
The team is currently developing an app that will allow somebody to use a smartphone to access images of that landscape.
Grizzlies underfoot in Banff
BANFF, Alberta – Grizzly bears were out and about at summer’s start in Banff, even crossing a park at the town’s center.
“There’s bears, bears, bears everywhere. It’s been a pretty chaotic several days with lots of bear activity and encounters,” said Steve Michel, a human-wildlife conflict specialist for Banff National Park.
“This is a very dynamic situation with lots of bears in a very concentrated area, including two large males in the midst of the breeding season actively searching for female grizzlies and competing with each other and a female with two 1-year-old cubs seeking security for her cubs.”
The Rocky Mountain Outlook reported that many trails were closed, to reduce the potential for human-bear conflicts. As was, several bluff charges had occurred.
The pain of limits on foreign workers
WHISTLER, B.C. – The Canadian government several months ago announced it would sharply limit the program for temporary immigrant workers because of abuses by some employers. Resort communities like Whistler cried foul.
This perceived injustice is explained anecdotally by The Mexican Corner, a popular restaurant whose owners want to open a sister store, La Cantina.
Trouble is, the new restaurant will need chefs from Mexico. “We have a specialized ethnic cuisine, and you need to be really familiar with that type of cuisine (to prepare it),” said Pepe Barajas, the general manager. “Most of our ingredients are native to Mexico. Therefore, even if we have skilled chefs, they won’t be familiar with the ingredients and they won’t know what the food is supposed to taste like.”
Pique Newsmagazine says the Whistler business community is most unhappy about the reforms, with concerns the changes will hamper the resort’s service sector.
“Obviously, there have been some very bad circumstances where the program was not correctly applied, but it strikes some that what the government has done now is a significant over-reaction to the issue,” said Stephen Webb, chair of the Hotel Association of Whistler.
Tough Mudder draws 20,000
WHISTLER, B.C. – The Tough Mudder drew an estimated 20,000 people to Whistler on the summer solstice to experience the joys of sweating, getting electrocuted at low levels, and, of course, getting very, very muddy.
Strictly as a business proposition, it’s a huge deal for Whistler, changing the resort’s hotel occupancy from 51 percent to 93 percent. Pique Newsmagazine notes that the weekend now competes with some of the resort’s busiest dates, including Crankworx, the mountain bike competition.
Pique explains that the Tough Mudder was created by two Brits, studying at Harvard Business School, who conceived of an endurance event consisting of 20 to 25 military-style obstacles over a 16- to 22-kilometer course. The first one was held in Pennsylvania in 2010.
What’s the draw? Marvin Zuckerman, a professor of clinical psychology, has a hypothesis that because most of our lives are relatively safe and controlled, adventure racing is a way of feeling that rush of adrenaline from stepping outside your comfort zone.
Don Schwartz, a Whistlerite who finished third in the World’s Toughest Mudder held last year in New Jersey, says cooperation, not competition, is at the heart of the draw. “It’s incredible to see the sense of camaraderie that occurs in events such as these. There’s almost an unwritten rule to help people out.”
Ski towns hesitant about fireworks
PARK CITY, Utah – Despite the cool spring and snowstorms that continued into June, fire marshals in several ski towns of the Rocky Mountains are taking no chances with fireworks.
In Park City, the City Council has banned fireworks through October. The city staff mentioned intensifying drought and the expectations of higher than normal temperatures in July and August, as predicted by the National Interagency Fire Center.
Paul Hewitt, the chief of the Park City Fire District, told The Park Record that the fire danger this year is about a 5 on a scale of 1-10. “We’re not bone dry … but conditions change quickly,” he said.
In Telluride, firefighters were evaluating whether to allow the Fourth of July fireworks to go on. It was a so-so winter, but June has been dry and windy, weather observers tell the Daily Planet.
But fire is also a concern in Telluride, even in the dead of winter. The Telluride Watch tells of a proposed festival for mid-January that would feature fire performers and fire art installations on the town’s main street.
Several Town Council members are skeptical. “I have a concern that we are experimenting with a festival that deals with fire in a national historic district that has a number of structures made of wood,” said Mayor Stu Fraser.
Construction rises but still lags 2007
ASPEN – Building is up this year in Aspen, a bellwether town among resorts. The Aspen Daily News reports $124 million in building permits through the first half of the year. At this rate, Aspen is likely to surpass last year’s final tally of $203 million, although not approaching the record-setting $371 million in permits in 2007.
– Allen Best
For more, go to www.mountaintownnews.net