Josh Hirshberg, the Colorado Avalanche Information Center’s new lead forecaster for the San Juans, poses for a selfie during a hut trip in British Columbia’s Selkirks. Hirshberg grew up skiing the icy slopes of New Hampshire and did stints at the Roaring Fork and Crested Butte avalanche centers before landing in Durango. His new “office” covers an area roughly the size of the Swiss Alps./Courtesy photo

As fall-folklore goes, the narrower the brown on the back of the Woolly Bear Caterpillar, the heavier the snowfall will be in the coming months. A few hundred of these insects were collected by entomologists in September and, lo and behold, narrower bands of brown compared with past years showed 2013-14 would be a spectacular ski season for Colorado.

Double-checking halfway between the winter solstice and spring equinox, four-seasons’ dwellers wait with baited breath to see if another seer, the esteemed groundhog, espies his shadow and scurries back to his burrow declaring without a word six more weeks of wintry weather.

But apparently these furry harbingers of white gold and frigid cold could care less about accurate predictions for the Southern San Juans, where mountain bike tracks tattoo trails that should be covered in snow.

So it’s nice to know that, unlike weather forecasting, not all calculations rely on the mythical minutiae provided by creepy-crawlies and burrowers but rather on scientific observations. Using data he finds in measuring stations scattered throughout the San Juan Mountains, the Colorado Avalanche Information Center’s (CAIC) newest San Juan-region avalanche forecaster, Josh Hirshberg, prognosticates a different kind of phenomenon. In light of the seven-day forecast finally revealing some positive precip percentages just in time for Snowdown, Hirshberg encourages backcountry enthusiasts to check avalanche conditions on the CAIC hotline or website (avalanche.state.co.us) before heading out.  

“The avalanche cycle from the last storm is a good preview of what to expect. There are a variety of different surfaces and many aren’t good bonding for the new snow coming in,” he said. “If we see more than 6 inches (of snow) in the mountains, we’ll start to see avis.”

Unlike his woodchuck counterpart, no one will be waiting outside Hirshberg’s door with cameras on Feb. 2. This avalanche forecaster leads a quiet life, rising early and getting in his freezing truck with a gourd of maté to head out on to collect data from research stations he reaches on skis.

Bless his heart.

Blasting motivational music (usually punk rock) on his way to work each morning, the 34-year-old bilingual snow scientist loves that his forecasting job requires him to get outside and look at the mountains and not just a computer screen. 

“Avalanche forecasting is all about what’s on the ground,” explains Hirshberg.

Unlike it is in weather forecasting, the technology isn’t there yet to sit in front of a computer and make snowpack predictions. This is great news for the young buck who’s been working in snow science since 2005 simply because he loves snow. And now he’s excited to be the forecaster for an area comparable to the Swiss Alps in both size and beauty, a comparison that may or may not be reciprocated by our Euro-brethren.

His territory stretches from Telluride to Wolf Creek and splits into two sections known as the Northern and Southern San Juans.

“Boundary lines depicting the Northern and Southern San Juan regions have shifted over the years. It now stands at Molas Pass and Molas Lake,” Hirshberg says.

He says the snowpack south of Molas Pass around Coal Bank Pass is more similar to Wolf Creek than Red Mountain, so Coal Bank naturally falls into the Southern San Juan region. But of course there are exceptions.

The Jan. 8-13 storm, for example, brought 21 inches of snow to Red Mountain Pass, 10 inches to Coal Bank and only 2 inches to Wolf Creek. Avalanche danger for the northern part of the Southern San Juans (that is, Coal Bank Pass area) was therefore said to be similar to that of the Northern San Juans.

Things change more in the north, Hirshberg says, so he spends most of his workdays near Telluride. Due to the4

lower level of storm activity in the Southern San Juans over the last month and a half, he only checks southern-based stations once every other week.

For the last three weeks, Hirshberg’s been unable to make his usual loop from Durango to Telluride through Ridgway to Silverton and back to Durango because of the recent Red Mountain Pass closure. To check those stations, he must drive north from Durango, which is fine by him considering this is where he does most of his personal skiing.

When pressed to share his secret spot, Hirshberg laughs before vaguely suggesting, “Anywhere off 550” or sheepishly admitting that “Ophir’s the spot.” But don’t tell Ophirites he told you.

And then, as an afterthought, he blurts out, “Lake City! Nobody skis over there. There are 14ers, high 13ers and you’ll see no one and people in Lake City need the business.”

But just because the snow’s not currently falling doesn’t mean Hirshberg has only been shredding.

When he’s not out in the field collecting data, Hirshberg’s reading feedback from backcountry recreationists on the CAIC’s website, a most important facet of his avalanche predictions. When snowmobilers, snowboarders and skiers venture into the backcountry, they can recap their personal observations on CAIC by including where they were, what they saw and when, even if it only confirms the forecast.

“It’s just as important to report inactivity,” he admonishes. “When people participate, it really makes for a much better forecast that’ll help everyone.”

His personal goal right now is simply to connect with the communities he’s forecasting for in order to craft better how he relays the complex elements of avalanches and snow science. Interaction between forecasters and the public is one of many great services provided by the CAIC. 

Not that there’s anything wrong with the computer-reading forecasters of the National Weather Service, which so far have been correct in their projection for this season:  a strong, stormy start followed by a long, dry slack in the middle.

The southwest mountains of Colorado are set to get a boost in snowfall in March and April, according to the NWS. To lessen anxiety on a week-to-week basis while awaiting these flurries, snow-hungry people can reach out to skiing meteorologist Joel Gratz for a bit of soothsaying.

Simply visit Gratz’s powder-inspired website, opensnow.com, and click on the “Ask Us” tab. Twenty minutes later, you’ll get an email with the answer to your seven-day snow-related query. See examples below:

Q: “Hi Joel, will the Southern San Juans experience winter again this year? We started off so strong and now, well, spider babies are hatching in the warmth and green grass is popping up prematurely.”

A: “Yes. This week, and perhaps a bigger storm next week. Snow will return!”

Q: “What kind of conditions can skiers and boarders expect to find should it snow this week?”

A: “If it all comes to fruition, Friday and Saturday morning and perhaps next Tuesday could be powdery and fun.”

Q: “What are your thoughts on Farmer’s Almanac predictions?”

A: “Farmer’s Almanac is entertainment, not an accurate forecast. I don’t pay attention to it,” says the East-Coast transplant from his new home in central Colorado.

According to the purely entertaining Almanac, the groundhog will see his shadow this Sunday thus proclaiming that winter could go well past March 20. Despite the sunshine or camera flashes that would produce said shadow, stormy weather is also projected by the Almanac for the Super Bowl, which happens to fall on the same day.

And while the Broncos are vying for a hard-earned title and poor Punxsutawney Phil is recovering from another jolting start to Groundhog Day, Durango will be descending from Snowdown highs and hopefully relishing the results of its snow-dancing, which both Gratz and Hirshberg think is worth a shot.

“I believe that science and physics bring snow, but that dancing is fun and surely can’t hurt!” says Gratz.

Our local prophet concurs: “It’s totally good to keep a positive attitude and put good energy into it,” suggests Hirshberg.

The woolly bear caterpillar had no comment.